Welcome to The Chirp’s NBA Playoff Preview, where we will be breaking down each playoff series with insights, things to watch, and an ultimate prediction. In this post, we take a look at the #2 vs. #7 matchup in the Western Conference between the Los Angeles Clippers and Dallas Mavericks.
When looking at the matchups across the board, I am not sure there’s a more exciting series than the showdown between the Dallas Mavericks and the Los Angeles Clippers. In some sense, this series feels like a present vs. future battle, although one could realistically argue that Dallas is much closer to contention than we realize. After all, the Mavericks finished the year with the 6th highest net rating in the NBA and boasted wins over Milwaukee (X2), the Los Angeles Lakers, Toronto, Houston, Denver, and other top teams. The Mavericks can beat any team on any given night for one simple reason: Luka Doncic. Doncic has exceeded even the wildest expectations this season as he’s transformed into a bonafide superstar and MVP candidate. Luka’s passing ability is easily his best skill and with much-improved shooting around him, the Mavericks fielded not only the best offense in the NBA this year, but the most efficient offense in NBA history. Yes, the Dallas Mavericks’ offense, which is led by a 21-year old, posted a more efficient offense than Golden State’s units which featured KD, Steph Curry, and Klay Thompson. Rick Carlisle does not get enough credit for his offensive schemes and the sets he runs; he is one of the very best coaches in the NBA. Yet, despite all this, Dallas is running into a super team: the Los Angeles Clippers. We have a classic example of an upstart team looking to dethrone a favorite. If nothing else, this should be fun.
Los Angeles Clippers
When the Los Angeles Clippers assembled this team over a year ago, I think many of us were quick to proclaim them as the obvious title favorite. Kawhi Leonard was coming off a dominant postseason and Finals MVP award (some people were calling him the best player in the world), Paul George is one of the best two-way players in the game, and the Clippers were adding those two players to a team that drastically overachieved and was bringing back their entire bench. The lineups the Clippers could put on the court were absurd: it is crazy to believe they could legitimately close a game with Patrick Beverley, Lou Williams, Paul George, Kawhi Leonard, and Montrezl Harrell. The Clips have an abundance of elite defenders with Kawhi, George, and Beverley, but Marcus Morris is a strong defender in his own right, as is JaMychal Green. This team is scary good and I didn’t even mention Ivica Zubac, Landry Shamet, and Reggie Jackson. On paper, the Clippers clearly have the best and deepest team in the NBA. It’ll take a herculean effort from any opponent to beat them four times.
The Clippers had the 2nd best offense in the NBA this year, posting an offensive rating of 113.3, an elite number. Remember, this is a team that has always had their sights set on the postseason, so we probably haven’t seen this team close to 100% yet. The Clippers had one of the highest P&R frequencies in the NBA this season, a lot of which could be accredited towards Lou Williams and Montrezl Harrell. Not only do the Clippers possess a fantastic P&R game, but the isolation capabilities of Kawhi Leonard and Paul George, along with Lou Williams, makes this team so difficult to defend. Frankly, you need the Clippers’ compilation of defensive depth in order to properly defend the Clippers. It is why the team is so unfair. Another point of emphasis for the Clippers is their free throw shooting, as they were #1 in the league in percentage of points that come from the line. This is an area I’m particularly interested to see: the Dallas Mavericks are a low foul team, but they have had issues with foul trouble in the bubble so far. Considering Dallas is without Dwight Powell, Jalen Brunson, and Willie Cauley-Stein, getting the Mavericks into foul trouble, particularly among their bigs, would give the Clippers a strong advantage. The Clippers aren’t a team that drives the basketball a ton, but they’re incredibly efficient on catch and shoot opportunities, making it essential for the Mavericks to stay stuck on their man. Dallas’ defense was slightly below average in the regular season, but it has been pitiful in Orlando so far. The Mavericks do not come close to having the personnel necessary to match up with the Clippers, so a lot of these games may come down to the Clippers’ ability to knock down those catch and shoot opportunities. The Mavericks have been right at league average defending spot-ups this season.
Defensively, the Clippers’ strengths play right into Dallas’ strengths, making this a fantastic matchup for Los Angeles. Not only do the Clippers possess three of the ten best defenders on the planet, but they have plenty of role players who are above average defenders as well. The sheer amount of different looks they can throw at Luka Doncic should make life extremely difficult for the wunderkind. The Mavericks run a similar offense to the Houston Rockets in the sense that they shoot a lot of threes, although Dallas’ offense is not reliant on isolation, but rather, ball movement and designed plays. The Mavericks generate a ton of great looks from deep based on Luka’s penetration off a high screen, but this is a strength of the Clippers. The Clippers have been the best team defending catch and shoot opportunities on the season and they have the 5th best 3-PT% defense in the NBA. The Clippers do allow a solid amount of threes and a decent amount of wide-open threes, but overall, their shooting defense is extremely stingy. It is conceivable to believe that a team like Dallas, who ranks 10th in 3-PT%, could get stupid hot for a game or two allowing them to win, but to maintain that over a whole series? That’s an incredibly tall task. As for defending the pick-and-roll, the Mavericks are among the most efficient offenses in those sets, ranking 2nd in PPP among the ball-handler. The Clippers have plenty of defenders who succeed in those situations, including Kawhi Leonard and Marcus Morris. L.A. has such incredible defensive depth that even when they’re going up against the greatest offense in NBA history, it still feels as if they have the advantage.
Dallas Mavericks
Entering the 2019-20 season, expectations for the Dallas Mavericks ranged widely. Some people believed Dallas would be lucky to compete for a playoff berth while optimists believed the Mavericks would be the 7th or 8th seed. Dallas ultimately wound up 7th, but considering where they started the year, it is hard to argue their success this season. Entering the year, we hadn’t seen Kristaps Porzingis play basketball in 18 months, Tim Hardaway Jr. was ineffective the prior season, and Dallas had a lot of new faces and a new locker room leader with Dirk Nowitzki’s retirement. Dallas is legitimately the most dangerous 7 seed in NBA history and frankly, they should be much better. The Mavericks struggles in “clutch time” are well-documented and if just two or three games swung their way, they could be the 4th or 5th seed. Regardless, the work Rick Carlisle and his staff have done with Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis, along with all the homegrown role players who have become integral rotational pieces, has been simply incredible. No matter the result of this series, this year has been a rousing success for the Mavericks and bright days are ahead.
Offensively, everything runs through Luka Doncic which is incredible pressure for a second year pro. Yet, Luka’s talent level allows him to not only shoulder all that responsibility, but to thrive in it as well. As Kristaps Porzingis has found his footing and reminded us all why he was dubbed the next young star big a few years ago, it’s apparent that Dallas’ duo of Luka and Porzingis forms the most lethal pick-and-pop combo in the entire NBA. Dallas’ offense is so efficient for a variety of reasons, but the one that jumps out to me is when Dallas’ offense is humming, it’s because of their ball movement. Considering the Mavericks are so reliant on Luka, it’s surprising to see they rank slightly above average in terms of passes per game and assists. It speaks highly to Luka’s talent, but also to Dallas’ scheme, as Carlisle is fantastic at getting shooters clean looks and running them off screens. However, Luka’s ability to penetrate also gets Dallas wide-open looks. Seth Curry and Tim Hardaway Jr. are in the 98th and 95th percentiles respectively in spot-up shooting, while Dorian Finney-Smith and Kristaps Porzingis rank above average as well. As mentioned, the Clippers are an elite defensive team against the 3-PT shot, but Dallas’ has some elite shooters, particularly on open looks. Dallas needs Luka to be special like he was in his 19-assist performance against the Milwaukee Bucks, but if the Mavericks shoot the 3-PT ball well, they have a shot any given night.
Despite the Clippers’ elite defense, I’m not too worried about Dallas’ offense. I think they’ll be overwhelmed by Los Angeles’ talent advantage, but if they get beat because of talent, there’s not much you can do. Carlisle is such an offensive genius that I’d be surprised if Dallas’ offense got suffocated by the Clippers consistently. However, my biggest concern is with Dallas’ defense. The Mavericks had the worst defensive rating among all teams in the bubble during the seeding games and they have shown a concerning lack of attention to detail on that end of the court. Too often, the Mavericks let their offensive performance dictate their defensive energy. Dallas is still young and Luka Doncic in particular has shown greater interest in arguing a call than competing on defense at times, but those habits need to (and eventually will) disappear. Los Angeles’ offense is too good to not deliver 110% effort each possession. The Mavericks never get blown out, but their defense needs massive improvement in this series, or else it’ll get ugly.
Dallas’ biggest roster flaw is their lack of wing depth, something that should rear its ugly head against the wing-heavy Clippers. At any given time, Dallas can only place one above-average defender on Kawhi Leonard or Paul George without sacrificing offense. Tim Hardaway Jr. has been great defending spot-up shooters, but he’s struggled when screened by defenders, as he gets caught way too easily. Paul George has had some big moments when THJ has guarded him and I think the Mavericks may have to put Dorian Finney-Smith on George. The Mavericks will need Maxi Kleber to be phenomenal in this series, but if they utilize Kleber on Leonard, that may leave them without a big to defend Montrezl Harrell and Ivica Zubac. Simply put, the Mavericks do not have the defenders to slow down L.A. in this series. They’ll compete defensively and make things tough, but a lot of Dallas’ hopes in this series may come down to the Clippers’ shooting. If L.A. gets a little cold, then Dallas’ offense has the chance to storm in and take a strong lead. Dallas will need Delon Wright, who’s been effective guarding the ball-handler in P&R situations, to really be an impactful player in this series.
X-Factors
Los Angeles Clippers: C-Ivica Zubac
To be honest, the Clippers don’t need an “X-Factor”; they’re too talented to have a player swing the momentum of a series. However, Ivica Zubac has the potential to be an impact player in this series and force Dallas into tough situations. During their game against the Mavericks in the seeding round, Zubac went off for 21 points and 15 rebounds without missing a shot. The Mavericks are thin up front, but if Zubac is able to physically dominate his opponents, Dallas may be forced to turn to Boban Marjanovic, which leaves Dallas at a disadvantage guarding the pick-and-roll and guarding in space. The Mavericks have had some issues against traditional bigs at times, but I will caution this: if Ivica Zubac is getting a lot of touches, the ball isn’t in Kawhi Leonard or Paul George’s hands. Having Zubac active and efficient is big for the Clippers, however, but he needs to stay in the defined role.
Dallas Mavericks: G-Delon Wright
As a Mavericks fan, there’s so many players I could’ve went with here, namely Seth Curry and Maxi Kleber. Curry is an obvious choice and Dallas will certainly need his elite shooting. However, I opt for Delon Wright because he’s shown the ability to change games and he’s a defensive playmaker, something the Mavericks will need. Wright’s biggest weakness is his indecisiveness; he seems afraid to attack the rim with purpose, but when he’s aggressive, he’s a different player. Wright is an incredibly active and smart defender who jumps passing lanes and has great positional size and fluidity; Dallas will need him to guard Lou Williams, especially when Lou shares the court with Paul George and/or Kawhi Leonard. If Wright can be aggressive, he also functions as a secondary playmaker. Wright has a great “wiggle” in his game and can glide effortlessly to the rim, but it’s really about his mindset. As one of the few players on the active roster with postseason experience, Wright’s presence will be important, and if he’s aggressive, he could be a key piece to help elevate Dallas’ defensive issues.
Outlook
As a warning, I am a die-hard Mavericks fan, so I won’t pick the team to get swept. As a fan of a team, you have to believe in your group, but this is a nightmarish matchup for any team, but especially Dallas. Their weaknesses play right into L.A.’s strengths and they’re still a solid year or two away from being title contenders. Remember, this was a team expected to compete for a postseason spot. Now, they have a 21-year old MVP candidate, a complementary 7’3 star, and plenty of quality role players who helped engineer the most efficient offense in NBA history. The future is incredibly bright for Dallas regardless of what happens in this series. Obviously you hope the Mavericks can steal at least a game, but as long as they compete, get postseason experience, and scrap to the final minute, what more can you ask for?
With that all being said, Clippers in 5.
Prediction: Clippers Win Series in 4-1
The Chirp 